ISSM: Ice Sheet System Model

In order to have the capability to use satellite data from its own missions to inform future sea-level rise projections, JPL needed a full-fledged ice-sheet/iceshelf flow model, capable of modeling the mass balance of Antarctica and Greenland into the near future. ISSM was developed with such a goal in mind, as a massively parallelized, multi-purpose finite-element framework dedicated to ice-sheet modeling. ISSM features unstructured meshes (Tria in 2D, and Penta in 3D) along with corresponding finite elements for both types of meshes. Each finite element can carry out diagnostic, prognostic, transient, thermal 3D, surface, and bed slope simulations. Anisotropic meshing enables adaptation of meshes to a certain metric, and the 2D Shelfy-Stream, 3D Blatter/Pattyn, and 3D Full-Stokes formulations capture the bulk of the ice-flow physics. These elements can be coupled together, based on the Arlequin method, so that on a large scale model such as Antarctica, each type of finite element is used in the most efficient manner. For each finite element referenced above, ISSM implements an adjoint. This adjoint can be used to carry out model inversions of unknown model parameters, typically ice rheology and basal drag at the ice/bedrock interface, using a metric such as the observed InSAR surface velocity. This data assimilation capability is crucial to allow spinning up of ice flow models using available satellite data. ISSM relies on the PETSc library for its vectors, matrices, and solvers. This allows ISSM to run efficiently on any parallel platform, whether shared or distrib- ISSM: Ice Sheet System Model NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California uted. It can run on the largest clusters, and is fully scalable. This allows ISSM to tackle models the size of continents. ISSM is embedded into MATLAB and Python, both open scientific platforms. This improves its outreach within the science community. It is entirely written in C/C++, which gives it flexibility in its design, and the power/speed that C/C++ allows. ISSM is svn (subversion) hosted, on a JPL repository, to facilitate its development and maintenance. ISSM can also model propagation of rifts using contact mechanics and mesh splitting, and can interface to the Dakota software. To carry out sensitivity analysis, mesh partitioning algorithms are available, based on the Scotch, Chaco, and Metis partitioners that ensure equal area mesh partitions can be done, which are then usable for sampling and local reliability methods

A JavaScript API for the Ice Sheet System Model: towards on online interactive model for the Cryosphere Community

Abstract. Earth System Models (ESMs) are becoming increasingly complex, requiring extensive knowledge and experience to deploy and use in an efficient manner. They run on high-performance architectures that are significantly different from the everyday environments that scientists use to pre and post-process results (i.e. MATLAB, Python). This results in models that are hard to use for non specialists, and that are increasingly specific in their application. It also makes them relatively inaccessible to the wider science community, not to mention to the general public. Here, we present a new software/model paradigm that attempts to bridge the gap between the science community and the complexity of ESMs, by developing a new JavaScript Application Program Interface (API) for the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). The aforementioned API allows Cryosphere Scientists to run ISSM on the client-side of a webpage, within the JavaScript environment. When combined with a Web server running ISSM (using a Python API), it enables the serving of ISSM computations in an easy and straightforward way. The deep integration and similarities between all the APIs in ISSM (MATLAB, Python, and now JavaScript) significantly shortens and simplifies the turnaround of state-of-the-art science runs and their use by the larger community. We demonstrate our approach via a new Virtual Earth System Laboratory (VESL) Web site

Plastic bed beneath Hofsjökull Ice Cap, central Iceland, and the sensitivity of ice flow to surface meltwater flux

The mechanical properties of glacier beds play a fundamental role in regulating the sensitivity of glaciers to environmental forcing across a wide range of timescales. Glaciers are commonly underlain by deformable till whose mechanical properties and influence on ice flow are not well understood but are critical for reliable projections of future glacier states. Using synoptic-scale observations of glacier motion in different seasons to constrain numerical ice flow models, we study the mechanics of the bed beneath Hofsjökull, a land-terminating ice cap in central Iceland. Our results indicate that the bed deforms plastically and weakens following incipient summertime surface melt. Combining the inferred basal shear traction fields with a Coulomb-plastic bed model, we estimate the spatially distributed effective basal water pressure and show that changes in basal water pressure and glacier accelerations are non-local and non-linear. These results motivate an idealized physical model relating mean basal water pressure and basal slip rate wherein the sensitivity of glacier flow to changes in basal water pressure is inversely related to the ice surface slope.This research was conducted at the California Institute of Technology and the University of Iceland with funding provided by the NASA Crysopherice Sciences Program (Award NNX14AH80G). B. M. was partially funded by a NASA Earth and Space Sciences Fellowship and an Achievement Rewards for College Students (ARCS) fellowship. InSAR data are freely available from the Alaska Satellite Facility via the UAVSAR website (http://uavsar.jpl.nasa.gov).Peer Reviewe

Toward Improved Understanding of Changes in Greenland Outlet Glacier Shear Margin Dynamics in a Warming Climate

The Greenland Ice Sheet has experienced accelerated mass loss over the last couple decades, in part due to destabilization of marine-terminating outlet glaciers. Retreat and acceleration of outlet glaciers coincides with atmospheric and oceanic warming resulting in a significant contribution to sea-level rise. The relative role of surface meltwater production, runoff and infiltration on the dynamics of these systems is not well-understood. To assess how surface meltwater impacts shear margin dynamics and regional ice flow of outlet glaciers, we investigate the impact of basal lubrication of Jakobshavn Isbræ shear margins due to drainage from water-filled crevasses. We map the areal extent of inundated crevasses during summer (May–August) from 2000 to 2012 using satellite imagery and determined an increasing trend in the total areal extent over this time interval. We use a numerical ice flow model to quantify the potential impact of weakened shear margins due to surface melt derived basal lubrication on regional flow velocities. Ice flow velocities 10 km from the lateral margins of Jakobshavn were amplified by as much as 20%, resulting in an increase of ~0.6 Gt yr−1 in ice-mass discharge through the shear margins into the ice stream. Under future warming scenarios with increased surface melt ponding, simulations indicate up to a 30% increase in extra-marginal ice flow. We conclude that surface meltwater will likely play an important role in the evolving dynamics of glacier shear margins and the future mass flux through Greenland's major marine-terminating outlet glaciers

A constitutive framework for predicting weakening and reduced buttressing of ice shelves based on observations of the progressive deterioration of the remnant Larsen B Ice Shelf

The increasing contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to sea level rise is linked to reductions in ice shelf buttressing, driven in large part by basal melting of ice shelves. These ocean-driven buttressing losses are being compounded as ice shelves weaken and fracture. To date, model projections of ice sheet evolution have not accounted for weakening ice shelves. Here we present the first constitutive framework for ice deformation that explicitly includes mechanical weakening, based on observations of the progressive degradation of the remnant Larsen B Ice Shelf from 2000 to 2015. We implement this framework in an ice sheet model and are able to reproduce most of the observed weakening of the ice shelf. In addition to predicting ice shelf weakening and reduced buttressing, this new framework opens the door for improved understanding and predictions of iceberg calving, meltwater routing and hydrofracture, and ice shelf collapse

Insights into Spatial Sensitivities of Ice Mass Response to Environmental Change from the SeaRISE Ice Sheet Modeling Project I: Antarctica

Atmospheric, oceanic, and subglacial forcing scenarios from the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) project are applied to six three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet models to assess Antarctic ice sheet sensitivity over a 500 year timescale and to inform future modeling and field studies. Results indicate (i) growth with warming, except within low-latitude basins (where inland thickening is outpaced by marginal thinning); (ii) mass loss with enhanced sliding (with basins dominated by high driving stresses affected more than basins with low-surface-slope streaming ice); and (iii) mass loss with enhanced ice shelf melting (with changes in West Antarctica dominating the signal due to its marine setting and extensive ice shelves; cf. minimal impact in the Terre Adelie, George V, Oates, and Victoria Land region of East Antarctica). Ice loss due to dynamic changes associated with enhanced sliding and/or sub-shelf melting exceeds the gain due to increased precipitation. Furthermore, differences in results between and within basins as well as the controlling impact of sub-shelf melting on ice dynamics highlight the need for improved understanding of basal conditions, grounding-zone processes, ocean-ice interactions, and the numerical representation of all three

Design and results of the ice sheet model initialisation experiments initMIP-Greenland: an ISMIP6 intercomparison

Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections (e.g. those run during the ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives) have shown that ice sheet initial conditions have a large effect on the projections and give rise to important uncertainties. The goal of this initMIP-Greenland intercomparison exercise is to compare, evaluate, and improve the initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties in modelled mass changes. initMIP-Greenland is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6), which is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the ice sheets. Two experiments for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet have been designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of (1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and (2) the response in two idealised forward experiments. The forward experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without additional forcing) and in response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly); they should not be interpreted as sea-level projections. We present and discuss results that highlight the diversity of data sets, boundary conditions, and initialisation techniques used in the community to generate initial states of the Greenland ice sheet. We find good agreement across the ensemble for the dynamic response to surface mass balance changes in areas where the simulated ice sheets overlap but differences arising from the initial size of the ice sheet. The model drift in the control experiment is reduced for models that participated in earlier intercomparison exercises

initMIP-Antarctica: an ice sheet model initialization experiment of ISMIP6

Ice sheet numerical modeling is an important tool to estimate the dynamic contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise over the coming centuries. The influence of initial conditions on ice sheet model simulations, however, is still unclear. To better understand this influence, an initial state intercomparison exercise (initMIP) has been developed to compare, evaluate, and improve initialization procedures and estimate their impact on century-scale simulations. initMIP is the first set of experiments of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), which is the primary Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) activity focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Following initMIP-Greenland, initMIP-Antarctica has been designed to explore uncertainties associated with model initialization and spin-up and to evaluate the impact of changes in external forcings. Starting from the state of the Antarctic ice sheet at the end of the initialization procedure, three forward experiments are each run for 100 years: a control run, a run with a surface mass balance anomaly, and a run with a basal melting anomaly beneath floating ice. This study presents the results of initMIP-Antarctica from 25 simulations performed by 16 international modeling groups. The submitted results use different initial conditions and initialization methods, as well as ice flow model parameters and reference external forcings. We find a good agreement among model responses to the surface mass balance anomaly but large variations in responses to the basal melting anomaly. These variations can be attributed to differences in the extent of ice shelves and their upstream tributaries, the numerical treatment of grounding line, and the initial ocean conditions applied, suggesting that ongoing efforts to better represent ice shelves in continental-scale models should continue

Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models

Projection of the contribution of ice sheets to sea level change as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) takes the form of simulations from coupled ice sheet–climate models and stand-alone ice sheet models, overseen by the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). This paper describes the experimental setup for process-based sea level change projections to be performed with stand-alone Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet models in the context of ISMIP6. The ISMIP6 protocol relies on a suite of polar atmospheric and oceanic CMIP-based forcing for ice sheet models, in order to explore the uncertainty in projected sea level change due to future emissions scenarios, CMIP models, ice sheet models, and parameterizations for ice–ocean interactions. We describe here the approach taken for defining the suite of ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet simulations, document the experimental framework and implementation, and present an overview of the ISMIP6 forcing to be used by participating ice sheet modeling groups